“Directed growth is essential to ensure well-being in the Caribbean Netherlands by 2050,” emphasizes the State Committee on Demographic Developments in its July 4, 2024, report, “Directed Growth.”

On the request of the Dutch government and the House of Representatives, the State Committee Demographic Developments 2050 was established in September 2022. In November 2022, the House of Representatives requested the government to also include the Caribbean Netherlands in the State Committee’s remit. The task of the State Committee is to advise the government on scenarios, policy options, and action perspectives of the government about the social consequences of demographic developments, in particular aging and migration, until at least 2050 and against the background of general well-being.

To achieve sustainable well-being in Bonaire, Sint Eustatius, and Saba by 2050, it is crucial to prepare for population aging and manage current population growth effectively. The State Committee’s report highlights the need for strategic population management to alleviate pressures on these islands, which are especially vulnerable due to their small size. Uncontrolled growth could strain essential services, leading to labor shortages in critical sectors such as healthcare and education. Targeted labor migration is necessary to address these shortages while considering the islands’ limited resources and the impacts of climate change. Each island must make informed political decisions regarding economic structure, migration volume, and aging population challenges.

Key Points from the State Committee’s Report

Challenges and Recommendations:

Bonaire, Sint Eustatius, and Saba face significant socio-economic and environmental challenges. Richard van Zwol, Chair of the State Committee, points out that these challenges necessitate long-term political decisions to manage demographic changes like population aging and migration.

Well-being is under threat. The small scale of these islands makes public services expensive and leaves them vulnerable to economic shocks. The Caribbean Netherlands’ population generally has a more precarious socio-economic position than the European Netherlands, and the islands’ geographic location makes them particularly susceptible to climate change impacts.
Labor shortages are imminent. The growing and aging population will increase demand for healthcare and other public services. Public services and infrastructure must be adapted promptly to support an older population, necessitating increased community and family involvement in caregiving.

Necessity of Focused Migration:

Labor migration is crucial but must be carefully managed. While it can meet rising labor demands, it also increases pressure on public services, housing, and space, and may weaken social cohesion and exacerbate inequality. The State Committee stresses that migration policies should prioritize vital roles within the islands and provide services and opportunities to retain migrants and returning graduates.

Each island requires tailored growth strategies. Directed growth must be aligned with each island’s needs and circumstances:

Bonaire: Emphasizes controlling rapid population growth by making strategic economic choices and ensuring tourism aligns with the island’s capacity.
Sint Eustatius: Focuses on achieving a growth rate that supports and revitalizes the island, countering economic decline and population aging.

Saba: Given its limited physical space, growth must involve careful, incremental steps to enhance well-being and strengthen public services.

Immediate Call for Action Due to Population Aging

The aging population necessitates prompt and coordinated policy responses in areas such as spatial planning and housing to accommodate the changing population size and composition. Robust policies based on demographic scenarios are crucial, given the islands’ small size and vulnerability. These challenges cannot be tackled by the islands alone, requiring regional cooperation and support from the European Netherlands.

Moving Forward

To address demographic challenges effectively, more comprehensive demographic data and knowledge are essential. Improving the quality of demographic data will facilitate scenario planning and enable clear-cut political decisions. Integrating demographic considerations into collective decision-making processes will be vital to secure a sustainable future for the Caribbean Netherlands in the coming years.