The popu­lation of the Caribbean Netherlands grew by three per cent in 2024, reach­ing 30,397 residents as of January 1. According to a recent report by Statistics Netherlands CBS, titled The Caribbean Nether­lands in Numbers 2024, the population is projected to continue growing, reaching 36,100 residents by 2035, a nineteen per cent increase from 2024.

The majority of the growth is expected on Bonaire, which has seen steady population increases since 2011. By 2035, Bonaire’s population is projected to increase by 21%, reaching 30,450 residents. St. Eusta­tius and Saba will see small­er increases of 5% and 10%, respectively, bringing their populations to 3,380 and 2,260.

While migration contin­ues to drive population growth, many new arrivals do not stay long-term. On Bonaire, just over half of those who moved to the island between 2011 and 2016 had left again within seven years. The highest turnover was among immi­grants from the European Netherlands, with 61% leaving within that period, followed by 29% of immi­grants from Central and South America.

On St. Eustatius, 65% of newcomers left within seven years, with the high­est departures among those from the European Neth­erlands (59%) and Central and South America (50%). Saba saw the highest rate of departures, with 85% of new arrivals leaving within seven years. The turn­over was particularly high among those from North America, with 92% leaving the island within that time.

The Caribbean Nether­lands is also experiencing an ageing population. On Bonaire, the percentage of residents 65 years or older has risen from 10% in 2011 to 14% in 2024, and is ex­pected to reach 20% by 2035. Saba currently has the oldest population, with 16% of its residents ages 65 or older in 2024, a figure ex­pected to increase to 19% by 2035.

Between 2018 and 2024, more than half of the resi­dents of the Caribbean Netherlands were born in the region (including Aruba, Curacao, and St. Maarten). However, this percentage is expected to decline on Bonaire and Saba while increasing on St. Eustatius.

Bonaire has the largest share of residents born in the European Netherlands (16% in 2024), a trend ex­pected to continue. Mean­while, Saba will see a grow­ing number of residents born outside the Caribbean and European Nether­lands, making its popula­tion more diverse.

CBS notes that population growth in the Caribbean Netherlands is heavily influ­enced by migration trends, which remain unpredict­able. Migration continues to be the biggest driver of population change, making future forecasts subject to uncertainties.

The Daily Herald.